FANTASY MAILBAG
Don’t drop V-Mart
I’m in an eleven team mixed points league, but points are only counted if a hitter plays in his designated position. (For example, if I play Miguel Cabrera at first base for the week and he DHs on a particular day I would procure to be no points). I am being hurt by Victor Martinez DH’ing or playing first base so often I’m not getting his offensive value. Our first re-entry draft is coming up soon. Should I throw Martinez back and try to spike up a catcher who actually catches or hang forward to him even though he is not catching very oftentimes?
Curtis Smith, Bridgeville, Pa.
Gardner: Martinez is most likely your best option, but I’d worry more about his greatly reduced domination than his lost starts behind the plate. Even though his average has held steady, he hasn’t hit a home run yet this season after slugging 25 a year ago. But he does have a track record that suggests a return to form is around the corner.
As for the lost starts, Martinez has improved his defense considerably, so as long as he’s healthy, he’ll be out there more often than not. You can look at guys like Miguel Olivo or Chris Snyder, but they’re going to get a few days off each week as well.
If you have a fantasy question, despatch an e-mail to sgardner@usatoday.com. Be sure to include your hometown and a daytime phone number for verification purposes. Also, check out Steve’s blog page at sgardner.usatoday.com and leave him a message.
SIZZLERS AND FIZZLERS SIZZLERS
Players who have taken an upturn in value in the last week:
Jose Guillen OF Royals Has raised his average nearly 100 points in the last three weeks.
Andrew Miller SP Marlins After brutal April, has been much more consistent this month.
Chris Perez RP Cardinals Future closer is worth grabbing now with Jason Isringhausen out.
Mike Cameron OF Brewers Making the most of RBI opportunities in Milwaukee’s No. 2 spot.
Alexi Casilla 2B Twins Speedster is playing every day and hitting for average too.
FIZZLERS
Players who have taken a downturn in the last week:
Justin Upton OF Diamondbacks Isn’t even making contact; 0-for-24 skid included 17 strikeouts.
Jack Hannahan 3B Athletics Slumping at the wrong time with Eric Chavez on the way end.
Brett Myers SP Phillies High ERA, reduced velocity are growing concerns.
Franklin Gutierrez OF Indians Cold spell has opened the door for Ben Francisco.
Armando Galarraga SP Tigers Dontrelle Willis not likely to remain in the bullpen much longer.
By Steve Gardner, USA TODAY Memorial Day weekend is the time when millions of Americans glorify the need for accelerate on the racetrack. So which better time for fantasy baseball owners to celebrate the need for speed on the basepaths?
Stolen bases account for about 25% of a team’s offensive output (less in points leagues), but reliable speed merchants are an important component of any successful fantasy team, especially if they can contribute in other areas.
That’s why many baseball experts owe an reparation to Juan Pierre of the Los Angeles Dodgers. With the signing of free agent Andruw Jones, it was almost a foregone conclusion that Pierre would end up being little more than a fourth outfielder because he has no power and isn’t a great defender.
But one thing Pierre does have is speed. It’s helped him steal 35 or more bases and score 85 or more runs in each of the last seven seasons. Despite losing playing duration to youngsters Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp, Pierre is stealing bases with even more regularity this season. His 19 thefts (through Monday) are tied for second in the National League and put him on pace for a career-high 68.
With a career batting average above .300 and an uncanny ability to stay healthy (until this season he had played in 434 consecutive games), Pierre is still a fantasy asset — and, greatest part likely, a fantasy bargain this season.
FANTASY SPIN: Keep an eye on Contreras KFFL: Beltran, Ethier, Uggla suffer stock rising CHAT TRANSCRIPT: Stats guru Ron Shandler took your questions
If your team is lagging in steals, is Pierre a good trade target? Possibly, but it depends on what else your team needs.
Quick pickups
In Ron Shandler’s Baseball Forecaster, he uses a statistic called stolen-base opportunity percentage (SBO), which is a rough approximation of how often a baserunner attempts to steal when he has the chance.
In 2007, the SBO leaders were Jose Reyes (47%), Carlos Gomez (45%), Carl Crawford (43%), Rajai Davis (43%) and Corey Patterson (41%).
This season, Pierre and several other players are running even in greater numbers frequently. Houston’s Michael Bourn leads the majors in SBO at 54%, followed closely by Colorado’s Willy Taveras at 51% and Pierre at 48%. Not surprisingly, they’re also 1-2-3 in the National League in steals.
But there are some others who could contribute at a bargain price.
Jerry Hairston is getting extended playing time in Cincinnati while Jeff Keppinger is out. Hairston’s 53% SBO indicates he could be a solid short-term addition. With Corey Patterson’s anemic .242 on-base percentage, Hairston could be frequently hitting at the top of the order.
If Rajai Davis could only get more playing time for Oakland, he could make a huge difference in its offense. Davis has eight steals and the highest SBO in the majors this season at 75%, but a .200 average and .222 OBP keep him glued to the bench. If you can stash him on yours, it could pay off later.
Meanwhile, Scott Podsednik could see more action in the Colorado outfield with Brad Hawpe on the disabled schedule. Injuries slowed him last season, but Podsednik had between 40 and 70 steals from 2003 to 2006.
Trade targets
If you’re simply looking to race your way into contention and add to your steals numbers without giving up a roster spot, here are some speedy guys who can mayhap help you in other categories:
• Checkered flag
Jose Reyes, Mets: After racking up 78 steals a year ago, he has 15 in 2008. One reason is his 75% success rate. Another is his 38% SBO — etc. considerably from 48% last season. Expect both to increase.
Ian Kinsler, Rangers: He is 14-for-14 in steals this season and leads the American League in runs. Dustin Pedroia, Robinson Cano and Brian Roberts might cause to be more heed, but there’s no more useful second baseman in AL-only leagues — including 2B-eligible B.J. Upton.
Lance Berkman, Astros: The leading candidate for National League MVP has done everything well, but what’s helped make him so valuable in fantasy leagues is his career-high 10 stolen bases. For someone with that many combined over the last two seasons, Berkman is the furnish with men. If he’s on your roster, count your blessings.
•Green flag
Juan Pierre, Dodgers: The injury to Jones will guarantee Pierre full-time status with respect to at smallest the next month. There’s no reason to think he won’t continue to run and journey some else. Look for an uptick in batting average and runs too.
Chris Young, Diamondbacks: Where did all his steals go? After swiping 27 last season, he has four in 2008. With a much-improved offense, Arizona hasn’t needed to rely on the running game as much as it did last season. Young still has the speed, and he’s improved his batting average and on-base percentage from last season.
•Yellow flag
Ryan Theriot, Cubs: In leagues where net steals are counted, he’s not much of an asset because he has been successful nine times on the other hand has been caught eight others.
Joey Gathright, Royals: One of the fastest players in the majors, his SBO of 43% is one of the AL’s best. However, he isn’t getting on base often enough to make a major difference (just seven walks), and he rarely drives in any runs.
•Red flag
Eugenio Velez, Giants: He stole almost 100 bases over the last two minor league seasons but hasn’t been anywhere near as successful in the majors (eight steals in 13 attempts). San Francisco sent him to Class AAA last week but still thinks he can abet the team later in the year.
Yorvit Torrealba, Rockies: (I couldn’t resist.) Perhaps the worst baserunner in the game, he’s 0-for-4 in steal attempts. In other than 100 at-bats, he’s scored only five runs — and two of those were when he was able to trot leisurely around the bases on a home run.
Too often on rough copy day, securing stolen bases is an all-or-nothing proposition — fantasy owners either pay top dollar for a pure speed guy or forget about the category altogether. However, it’s much more efficient to target guys such as Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips and Corey Hart, who will number double-digit steals and contribute in other categories.